bongdaso com vnNews #92 - Air freight review: carriers eye higher contract rates after extended peak

Airlines are taking advantage of bongdaso com vn elongated December peak to raise contract rates for 2025.

Carriers are thought to have increased rates by about 10%, both for long-haul and intra-Asian routes, according to Dimerco.

A forwarding source in Shanghai backed this assessment, noting a .4/kg increase in blocked space agreements on Asia to Europe. However, while bongdaso com vn forwarder said that level “would be a record over bongdaso com vn past many years”, Dimerco claimed rates were lower than in 2023.

bongdaso com vn lengthy peak has been a result of an uptick in non-ecommerce volumes this month, due to better planning by shippers.

“Starting mid-December, we’ve seen a significant uptick in cargo volumes, particularly for consumer electronics,” noted Dimerco in its 2025 outlook.

“This is unusual, as bongdaso com vn market typically slows down after 5 December. However, this year, bongdaso com vn peak is expected to extend all bongdaso com vn way to late January, just ahead of Chinese New Year. What’s interesting is how general cargo has avoided bongdaso com vn usual October-November ecommerce rush to better optimise capacity and costs – this could indicate a new trend going in to 2025.”

Wenwen Zhang, airfreight analyst for Xeneta, noted in its 2025 outlook: “bongdaso com vn AI wave will lift bongdaso com vn recently stagnant B2B airfreight market. But this will not have as dramatic an impact on global demand when compared to factors in 2024 such as [bongdaso com vn] Red Sea Crisis and bongdaso com vn rise of ecommerce.

“Shippers on corridors with lower demand growth are still at risk if airlines remove capacity from secondary trades to meet bongdaso com vn increasing demand out of Asia.”

But there is also some front-loading, as shippers try to beat any tariffs that bongdaso com vn US (or elsewhere) could impose. “This has created a surge in demand, pushing capacity to critical levels,” said Kathy Liu VP, global sales and marketing for Dimerco Express Group.

Dimerco pointed to Taiwan as a particularly busy market, driven by trade with China.

“China-Taiwan trade will be a key growth area in 2025, driven by frequent cargo flights, proximity, and Taiwan’s mature production lines for semiconductors and consumer electronics. More parts will be shipped from China to Taiwan for assembly, then sent to bongdaso com vn US to avoid potential tariffs.

“AI chips and server shipments make up bongdaso com vn majority of Taiwan’s import/export demand.”

Dimerco added that space is currently tight on Taiwan to US lanes, with rate rising and no capacity until 25 December. It said Korean Air was fully booked from Tianjin to Chicago until bongdaso com vn end of December, while Japan Airlines cancelled a flight from Tianjin, resulting in unusually high space demand.

Several other Asian freighter operators have cancelled flights, which is expected to tighten capacity.

From North China to Europe and bongdaso com vn US, rates remain high, but are expected to soften after New Year’s day. China Cargo Airlines has reportedly cancelled all freighter flights for bongdaso com vn third week of December, citing lack of crew, although bongdaso com vn Loadstar could not confirm that. It is thought bongdaso com vn carrier has cancelled all flights from Shenzhen to Los Angeles and Stansted from this week until bongdaso com vn end of bongdaso com vn year, while All Nippon Airways is also reportedly cancelling freight flights from Guangzhou to Narita at bongdaso com vn end of December and bongdaso com vn first week of January.

“Cargo demand has sharply increased on Asia and Europe lanes, but flight cancellations have caused tight capacity and rising rates. In bongdaso com vn US market, rates are expected to stay stable in January before Chinese New Year, with charters helping to manage demand and maintain tight capacity,” explained Dimerco.

bongdaso com vn US market is expected to be challenging in bongdaso com vn new year, with a potential strike likely to drive shippers to airfreight. Qatar Airways, said Dimerco, had “no plans to return freighters to LAX, causing rate increases from other carriers due to limited main deck capacity”.

And Asia-Mexico is also likely to be busy, with airlines adding new routes to bongdaso com vn US neighbour, although it is yet to be discovered what bongdaso com vn impact of trade tariffs might be on bongdaso com vn market.

As ever, geopolitics will have a crucial impact on freight in 2025, as will bongdaso com vn introduction of bongdaso com vn Gemini network in shipping, bongdaso com vn ILA’s proposed US port strikes, tariffs and even, perhaps, an outbreak of peace.

Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer for Xeneta, said: “If there is a major change in bongdaso com vn geopolitical situation and a large-scale reopening of bongdaso com vn Red Sea, there could be a renewed acceleration of mode shift and air cargo demand growth for a few months. This is due to bongdaso com vn likely severe congestion and deterioration in schedule reliability if large numbers of ships stop transiting around bongdaso com vn Cape of Good Hope and begin arriving at destination ports at bongdaso com vn same time.

“bongdaso com vn threat of further strikes at ports on bongdaso com vn US east Coast and Gulf coast in January could also cause congestion and deteriorating schedule reliability. During bongdaso com vn first round of strikes on October 1-3, bongdaso com vn ocean to air mode shift contributed to a 12% month-on-month jump in Europe to US air cargo volumes.”

He continued: “bongdaso com vn Red Sea effect on bongdaso com vn air freight market has plateaued, and might even recede in 2025. This could provide a bit of breathing space for shippers, but bongdaso com vn threat of further disruption remains, given bongdaso com vn geopolitical climate.”

Source: https://theloadstar.com/air-freight-review-carriers-eye-higher-contract-rates-after-extended-peak/

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