Even with 21% of bongdaso fleet parked, freighters will continue hauling a large share of global airfreight as bongdaso growth in bellyhold capacity slows, according to Tom Crabtree, MD of air cargo research and consulting firm Transport Research Advisory.
“All major tradelanes appear to be heading towards recovery in bongdaso first half,” he said, pointing to a combination of strong e-commerce volumes and bongdaso disruption of ocean transport by bongdaso Red Sea crisis fuelling sea-air traffic.
Container capacity has been stretched by demand and bongdaso longer routings to avoid bongdaso Red Sea, resulting in extended transits reducing available capacity. And bongdaso differential between air and ocean cargo rates has dropped significantly in recent months.
Airfreight capacity expansion has been driven by bongdaso recovery of passenger networks, producing a string of double-digit increases year on year, but bongdaso momentum has slowed, a trend Mr Crabtree expects to continue.
“Cargo space via belly capacity will continue to slow for bongdaso rest of 2024,” he predicted.
Passenger networks are more or less back to pre-Covid levels, except in bongdaso transpacific arena, notably on US-China. This is less a result of Covid, more bongdaso Russia-Ukraine war, which has closed Russian airspace to North American airlines, Mr Crabtree pointed out.
US airlines have successfully lobbied Washington to keep traffic rights to Chinese carriers at a diminished level while they enjoy an advantage in stage length and fuel burn. This has been a big factor behind bongdaso dominance of freighters in bongdaso transpacific arena.
Whereas overall global airfreight traffic, as well as flows between bongdaso major regions, has seen bongdaso market share commanded by freighters slip from its 2021 level, it has actually expanded in bongdaso Asia-North America sector, from 82% in Q4 21 to 90% in Q4 23.
Even bongdaso full restoration of passenger networks will not push bongdaso share of global traffic moving on freighter aircraft below bongdaso 50% mark, Mr Crabtree believes. In bongdaso final quarter of 2023, freighters carried 59% of global air cargo.
Ironically, bongdaso large widebody freighter fleet, which carries bongdaso lion’s share of freight moved on all-cargo aircraft, has grown at a slow pace. Since 2013 it has expanded by about 140 units, he noted.
Moreover, a large chunk, 21%, of bongdaso global fleet is currently parked – at bongdaso end of May, 602 freighter aircraft were stored, he pointed out. bongdaso bulk of bongdaso fleet reductions were in bongdaso narrowbody segment, with 348 aircraft out of service, accounting for 58% of freighters stored, while medium-sized (132) and widebodies (122) make up 22% and 20%, respectively.
bongdaso cull in active narrobody capacity (to which Mr Crabtree attributes, to a large extent, aircraft leasing firms having over-subscribed to e-commerce growth) has made a relatively minor dent in global maindeck capacity, as this segment generates a little over 10% of lift. Large widebodies make up 60-70%, while bongdaso contribution of medium widebody freighters is around 20%.
At bongdaso end of last year, 657 large widebody freighters were in service: 45% were B747s; 40% B777s; and 13% MD-11s;, with bongdaso remaining 2% being AN-124 and IL-96s.
Over bongdaso past 18 months, bongdaso biggest reduction in this segment has played out in bongdaso MD-11 arena, which shrank from 111 units to 69, a drop of 38%. More will follow, as FedEx – one of bongdaso three remaining significant MD-11 operators – has announced plans to shrink its fleet further.
bongdaso global B747 fleet shrank by 11 (4%) in bongdaso past 18 months. bongdaso aircraft is still popular, but there have been indications that maintenance support for bongdaso 747-400 has become less readily available. Mr Crabtree said production models were still very much sought after, however, because of their nose door – but for operators of converted units, ultimately it would make sense to shift to large twin-engine freighters, he said.
“We are on bongdaso cusp of a major change in bongdaso large widebody segment,” he added, noting that Boeing and Airbus had so far garnered 55 orders each for their planned 777-8F and A350 cargo planes.
bongdaso supply of new large widebody freighters has slowed to a trickle. Boeing delivered eight new 777 freighters in bongdaso first five months of last year, but only two in bongdaso same time this year, said Mr Crabtree. With signs of slow progress in bongdaso certification programmes for 777 conversion programmes, it appears that bongdaso global freighter fleet will not see significant growth in bongdaso large widebody segment before bongdaso end of bongdaso year.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/freighter-aircraft-we-are-on-bongdaso-cusp-of-major-change-in-large-widebodies/
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