A “very strong Q4” for air cargo will likely turn into a record peak season, according to IATA economist Ghislaine Lang, but the growth will be hard to sustain next year.
In yesterday’s IATA global cargo media day, Ms Lang noted that “with booming ecommerce bongdaso con repeated disruptions in maritime shipping, the tide started to turn somewhere around mid-2023, bongdaso con demand started to grow again,” after industry-wide air cargo demand contracted in post-Covid 2022.
bongdaso con despite high expectations that this year’s peak season would be let down by an “unexceptional” October spike, “the truth will lie in November bongdaso con December data”, she said.
“We are experiencing a very strong Q4, bongdaso con it’s likely going to turn into a record peak season after all,” added Ms Lang, who said IATA’s Q3 24 data had noted nine months of double-digit year-on-year growth.
bongdaso con in line with the “much better than initially expected demand”, IATA has doubled its annual CTK (cargo tonne km) growth forecast for 2024, to a “remarkable” 11.8%, delivering an “all-time high in air cargo demand”.
However, Ms Lang noted that the year-on-year growth rates had been off the back of “an overall weak 2023 market”.
“So, sustaining these double annual growth rates is going to become just a little bit harder as we are nearing the year-end,” she warned.
bongdaso con, looking to 2025, IATA predicted a “somewhat lower” growth pace for air cargo,, at about 6%.
Air cargo capacity is also set to hit a record this year, as airlines continue to expand their fleets – “although at a slightly slower pace than in 2023”.
IATA forecasts 9.6% capacity growth by the end of 2024, bongdaso con 6.4% growth in 2025.
Further, “against all expectations late last year” that air cargo yield would normalise bongdaso con revert to its 2019 level, “that ended up coming to a halt in 2024”.
IATA’s latest available data shows that, despite ongoing capacity growth, global yield for air cargo was roughly 50% above its 2019 level. It grew by an “impressive” 11% year on year in October, the third month in a row showing double-digit growth.
bongdaso con “there is no sign of the average yield reverting back to its pre-pandemic level”.
Ms Lang explained that this could partly be attributed to the fact that large ecommerce companies, as well as shippers that had shifted from ocean shipping to air or sea-air transport, “are competing for tight capacity with the existing air cargo clientele”.
She said: “This puts upward pressure on yields bongdaso con, as a result, we are seeing a slight upward trend in the global yield.” But she added: “There is plenty of regional variability behind that.”
This high yield has primarily come from the rates on westbound routes out of Asia bongdaso con the Middle East to Europe bongdaso con the Americas “which have increased massively over the past year”.
But many other major tradelanes, including respective backhaul routes bongdaso con the transatlantic, are seeing lower rates than last year.
“On a global level, we therefore revised our prediction for the yield upward, forecasting a smaller-than-expected decline of 3.5% for the full year 2024 bongdaso con an almost flat evolution for 2025,” Ms Lang concluded.
Despite this, yields are still expected to remain about one-third above pre-pandemic levels through to the end of 2025.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/strong-q4-bongdaso con-booming-ecommerce-drives-record-peak-season-for-air-cargo/
Air cargo markets from Asia Pacific bongdaso con worldwide weakened further in the week to 20 April due to the effects of Easter holidays bongdaso con uncertainty caused by US changes in tariff...
At the inaugural Global Air Cargo Summit, held in Antalya, Türkiye, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecasted that air freight volumes will grow by an...
The imposition of new U.S. tariffs on foreign-made vehicles bongdaso con components is causing significant disruptions in the global automotive supply chain. Airfreight, often a linchpin...
Global trade uncertainty is prompting air cargo shippers bongdaso con freight forwarders to favor short-term contracts over longer-term agreements, as highlighted in a recent Xeneta...
U.S. plans to end tariff-free access for low-value shipments from China bongdaso con Hong Kong, coupled with a new 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, are projected to slash over...
Trade groups warn of higher ocean shipping costs bongdaso con disrupted supply chains, while U.S. officials argue the policy aims to strengthen domestic shipbuilding bongdaso con enhance economic...
Since January, the Trump Administration has announced bongdaso con delayed multiple tariffs on imports from Canada bongdaso con Mexico, further destabilizing the cross-border freight market....
As global supply chains adjust to post-pandemic realities bongdaso con shifting trade dynamics, the air cargo industry in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region finds itself at a pivotal crossroads.
Global tonnage improved +3% in week 15 (April 7-13) after the previous week’s drop of -7% as markets that had closed for the Eid-al-Fitr holiday came back on stream, but comparison...
E-commerce continues to be a key growth driver for air cargo, fueled by rising consumer demand bongdaso con the rapid expansion of emerging markets, even as regulatory barriers increase.
en